Predictive model of risk factors of High Flow Nasal Cannula using machine learning in COVID-19.

With the rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 patients in Japan, the number of patients receiving oxygen at home has also increased rapidly, and some of these patients have died. An efficient approach to identify high-risk patients with slowly progressing and rapidly worsening COVID-19, and to avoid missing the timing of therapeutic intervention will improve patient prognosis and prevent medical complications. Patients admitted to medical institutions in Japan from November 14, 2020 to April 11, 2021 and registered in the COVID-19 Registry Japan were included. Risk factors for patients with High Flow Nasal Cannula invasive respiratory management or higher were comprehensively explored using machine learning. Age-specific cohorts were created, and severity prediction was performed for the patient surge period. We were able to obtain a model that was able to predict severe disease with a sensitivity of 57% when the specificity was set at 90% for those aged 40-59 years, and with a specificity of 50% and 43% when the sensitivity was set at 90% for those aged 60-79 years and 80 years and older, respectively. We were able to identify lactate dehydrogenase level (LDH) as an important factor in predicting the severity of illness in all age groups. Using machine learning, we were able to identify risk factors with high accuracy, and predict the severity of the disease. We plan to develop a tool that will be useful in determining the indications for hospitalisation for patients undergoing home care and early hospitalisation.

Predicting respiratory failure for COVID-19 patients in Japan: a simple clinical score for evaluating the need for hospitalisation.

Predicting the need for hospitalisation of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is important for preventing healthcare disruptions. This observational study aimed to use the COVID-19 Registry Japan (COVIREGI-JP) to develop a simple scoring system to predict respiratory failure due to COVID-19 using only underlying diseases and symptoms. A total of 6873 patients with COVID-19 admitted to Japanese medical institutions between 1 June 2020 and 2 December 2020 were included and divided into derivation and validation cohorts according to the date of admission. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to create a simple risk score model, with respiratory failure as the outcome for young (18-39 years), middle-aged (40-64 years) and older (≥65 years) groups, using sex, age, body mass index, medical history and symptoms. The models selected for each age group were quite different. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the simple risk score model were 0.87, 0.79 and 0.80 for young, middle-aged and elderly derivation cohorts, and 0.81, 0.80 and 0.67 in the validation cohorts. Calibration of the model was good. The simple scoring system may be useful in the appropriate allocation of medical resources during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Potential usage of anterior nasal sampling in clinical practice with three rapid antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2

Introduction Anterior nasal sampling (AN) might be more convenient for patients than NP sampling to diagnose coronavirus disease. This study investigated the feasibility of rapid antigen tests for AN sampling, and the factors affecting the test accuracy. Methods This single-center prospective study evaluated one qualitative (ESP) and two quantitative (LUMI and LUMI-P) rapid antigen tests using AN and NP swabs. Symptomatic patients aged 20 years or older, who were considered eligible for reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction using NP samples within 9 days of onset were recruited. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative concordance rates between AN and NP samples were assessed for the rapid antigen tests. We investigated the characteristics that affected the concordance between AN and NP sampling results. Results A total of 128 cases were recruited, including 28 positive samples and 100 negative samples. The sensitivity and specificity of AN samples using ESP were 0.81 and 1.00, while those of NP samples were 0.94 and 1.00. The sensitivity of AN and NP samples was 0.91 and 0.97, respectively, and specificity was 1.00, for both LUMI and LUMI-P. The positive concordance rates of AN to NP sampling were 0.87, 0.94, and 0.85 for ESP, LUMI, and LUMI-P, respectively. No factor had a significant effect on the concordance between the sampling methods. Conclusions ESP, LUMI, and LUMI-P showed practical diagnostic accuracy for AN sampling compared to NP sampling. There was no significant factor affecting the concordance between AN and NP sampling for these rapid antigen tests.

Predictors of silent hypoxia in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: Silent hypoxia (SH) is common in patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan and other countries. Early identification of SH is important as more treatment options for COVID-19 have become available. This study aimed to identify predictors of SH using a nationwide COVID-19 registry of hospitalized patients. METHODS: Adult patients who were admitted to hospital with COVID-19 between January 2020 and June 2021 and who were hypoxic on admission (SpO2: 70-93%), not transferred from another facility, and who did not have disturbance of consciousness, confusion, or dementia, were included. SH was defined as hypoxia in the absence of shortness of breath/dyspnea upon admission. Predictors of SH were identified using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: The study included 1904 patients, of whom 990 (52%) satisfied the criteria for SH. Compared to patients without SH, patients with SH were older, more likely to be female, and had a slightly higher SpO2 on admission. Compared to patients without SH, patients with SH had a lower prevalence of chronic lung disease (CLD) other than chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, and obesity. Multivariable analysis revealed that the independent predictors of SH were older age, a shorter interval from symptom onset to admission, higher SpO2, and an absence of CLD or COPD. CONCLUSIONS: The absence of underlying lung disease and older age were important predictors of SH. The results of this study, which is the largest such study reported to date in Japan, may help clarify the mechanism of SH.

Effectiveness of remdesivir in hospitalized nonsevere patients with COVID-19 in Japan: A large observational study using the COVID-19 Registry Japan.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of remdesivir in the early stage of nonsevere COVID-19. Although several randomized controlled trials have compared the effectiveness of remdesivir with that of a placebo, there is limited evidence regarding its effect in the early stage of nonsevere COVID-19 cases. METHODS: We evaluated the effectiveness of remdesivir in the early stage of nonsevere COVID-19 using the COVID-19 Registry Japan, a nationwide registry of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Japan. Two regimens ("start remdesivir" therapy within 4 days from admission versus no remdesivir during hospitalization) among patients without the need for supplementary oxygen therapy were compared by a 3-step processing (cloning, censoring, and weighting) method. The primary outcome was a supplementary oxygen requirement during hospitalization. Secondary outcomes were 30-day in-hospital mortality and the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (IMV/ECMO). The data of 12,487 cases met our inclusion criteria. The "start remdesivir" regimen showed a lower risk of supplementary oxygen requirement (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.850, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.798-0.906, p value < 0.001). Both 30-day in-hospital mortality and risk of IMV/ECMO introduction were not significantly different between the 2 regimens (HRs: 1.04 and 0.983, 95% CI: 0.980-1.09 and 0.906-1.07, p values: 0.210 and 0.678, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Remdesivir might reduce the risk of oxygen requirement during hospitalization in the early stage of COVID-19; however, it had no positive effect on the clinical outcome and reduction in IMV/ECMO requirement.

Effectiveness of Favipiravir on Nonsevere, Early-Stage COVID-19 in Japan: A Large Observational Study Using the COVID-19 Registry Japan.

INTRODUCTION: Several randomized controlled trials have compared the effectiveness of favipiravir with that of placebo. However, evidence regarding its effect on nonsevere, early-stage coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains insufficient. METHODS: We used the COVID-19 Registry Japan, a nationwide registry of inpatients with COVID-19, for evaluating the effectiveness of favipiravir on patients with nonsevere, early-stage COVID-19. Eligible patients, who did not need supplementary oxygen therapy at admission, were classified according to two regimens (starting favipiravir therapy within 4 days from admission vs. no favipiravir during hospitalization) and were then compared using a three-step method (cloning, censoring, and weighting). The primary outcome was supplementary oxygen requirement during hospitalization, and the secondary outcomes were the need for invasive mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (IMV/ECMO) and overall mortality at 30 days. RESULTS: A total of 7654 cases were analyzed. The "start favipiravir" regimen did not show substantial differences in the primary outcome [hazard ratio 0.825, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.657-1.04, p = 0.098] and both of the secondary outcomes [need for IMV/ECMO and overall 30-day mortality, hazard ratio 1.02 (95% CI 0.649-1.60) and 0.869 (95% CI 0.519-1.46), p = 0.929 and 0.594, respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort from a COVID-19 registry, favipiravir was not associated with a positive effect on the clinical outcome on patients with nonsevere, early-stage COVID-19, suggesting that it is not an essential drug for COVID-19 treatment.

Two Cases of Breakthrough Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infections Caused by the Omicron Variant (B.1.1.529 Lineage) in International Travelers to Japan.

In November 2021, the World Health Organization designated a new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant of concern, Omicron (PANGO lineage B.1.1.529). We report on the first 2 cases of breakthrough coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by Omicron in Japan among international travelers returning from the country with undetected infection. The spread of infection by Omicron were considered.

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Adult after First Dose of mRNA Vaccine.

A 32-year-old man in Japan experienced respiratory failure after receiving the first dose of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine. He was treated with noninvasive ventilation and corticosteroids. Serologic test results suggested previous COVID-19; therefore, he received a diagnosis of multisystem inflammatory syndrome. COVID-19 vaccination could be a trigger for this condition.

Fatty liver on computed tomography scan on admission is a risk factor for severe coronavirus disease.

OBJECTIVES: To alleviate the overflow of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in hospitals, less invasive and simple criteria are required to triage the patients. We evaluated the relationship between COVID-19 severity and fatty liver on plain computed tomography (CT) scan performed on admission. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we considered all COVID-19 patients at a large tertiary care hospital between January 31 and August 31, 2020. COVID-19 severity was categorized into severe (moderate and severe) and non-severe (asymptomatic and mild) groups, based on the Japanese National COVID-19 guidelines. Fatty liver was detected on plain CT scan. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate factors associated with severe COVID-19. RESULTS: Of 222 patients (median age: 52 years), 3.2%, 58.1%, 20.7%, and 18.0% presented with asymptomatic, mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19, respectively. Although 59.9% had no fatty liver on plain CT, mild, moderate, and severe fatty liver occurred in 13.1%, 18.9%, and 8.1%, respectively. Age and presence of fatty liver were significantly associated with severe COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that fatty liver on plain CT scan on admission can become a risk factor for severe COVID-19. This finding may help clinicians to easily triage COVID-19 patients.

Factors associated with high antibody titer following coronavirus disease among 581 convalescent plasma donors: A single-center cross-sectional study in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: The ability to predict which patients with a history of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) will exhibit a high antibody titer is necessary for more efficient screening of potential convalescent plasma donors. We aimed to identify factors associated with a high immunoglobulin G (IgG) titer in Japanese convalescent plasma donors after COVID-19. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included volunteers undergoing screening for convalescent plasma donation after COVID-19. Serum anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) S-protein IgG antibodies were measured using a high-sensitivity chemiluminescence enzyme immunoassay. RESULTS: IgG antibodies were measured in 581 patients, 534 of whom had full information of selected independent variables. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that increasing age (1.037 [1,025, 1.048]), days from symptom onset to sampling (0.997 [0.995, 0.998]), fever (1.664 [1.226, 2.259]), systemic corticosteroid use during SARS-CoV-2 infection (2.382 [1.576, 3.601]), and blood type AB (1.478 [1.032, 2.117]) predict antibody titer. CONCLUSION: Older participants, those who experienced fever during infection, those treated with systemic corticosteroids during infection, those from whom samples were obtained earlier after symptom onset, and those with blood type AB are the best candidates for convalescent plasma donation. Therefore, these factors should be incorporated into the screening criteria for convalescent plasma donation after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Time-course evaluation of the quantitative antigen test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2: The potential contribution to alleviating isolation of COVID-19 patients.

INTRODUCTION: The automated quantitative antigen test (QAT), which detects severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is suitable for mass screening. However, its diagnostic capability differentiated by time from onset and potential contribution to infectivity assessment have not been fully investigated. METHODS: A retrospective, observational study using nasopharyngeal swab specimens from coronavirus disease (COVID-19) inpatients was conducted using LumipulseⓇ SARS-CoV-2 antigen test. Diagnostic accuracy was examined for the early (up to 10 days after onset) and late (over 10 days after onset) stages. Time-course QAT changes and reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction tests results were displayed as locally estimated scatterplot smoothing curve, and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to determine the appropriate cutoff value for differentiating the early and late stages. RESULTS: We obtained 100 specimens from 68 COVID-19 patients, including 51 early-stage and 49 late-stage specimens. QAT sensitivity and specificity were 0.82 (0.72-0.90) and 0.95 (0.75-0.99) for all periods, 0.93 (0.82-0.98) and 1.00 (0.39-1.00) for the early stage, and 0.66 (0.48-0.82) and 0.93 (0.69-0.99) for the late stage, respectively. The ROC analysis indicated an ideal cutoff value of 6.93 pg/mL for distinguishing early-from late-stage specimens. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for predicting the late stage were 0.76 (0.61-0.87), 0.76 (0.63-0.87), 0.76 (0.61-0.87), and 0.76 (0.63-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: QAT has favorable diagnostic accuracy in the early COVID-19 stages. In addition, an appropriate cutoff point can potentially facilitate rapid identification of noncontagious patients.

Pulmonary histoplasmosis diagnosed in a Japanese woman after traveling to central and South America: A case report.

Histoplasmosis is a fungal infection caused by Histoplasma capsulatum, and Japan is considered a non-endemic area for histoplasmosis. Most patients diagnosed with histoplasmosis in the past usually have exposure to caves and bat guano with travel history to endemic areas. Therefore, travel history and risk activities should be comprehensively assessed when suspecting histoplasmosis because this important information may be overlooked. Although few, possibilities of indigenous cases have also been suggested. Moreover, it is assumed that the number of travelers and endemic mycoses has decreased with the recent coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic. However, clinicians should carefully consider the differential diagnosis of histoplasmosis for travelers traveling to endemic areas. In this case report, we describe an immunocompetent Japanese woman who developed histoplasmosis due to a history of travel to an endemic country. Our case report suggests that clinicians should not exclude histoplasmosis from the differential diagnosis even in the absence of risk features such as activities or immunodeficiencies during travel.

External validation and update of prediction models for unfavorable outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: Most of the currently used prognostic models for COVID-19 are based on Western cohorts, but it is unknown whether any are applicable to patients with COVID-19 in Japan. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 160 patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to the National Center for Global Health and Medicine between January 26, 2020 and July 25, 2020. We searched PubMed for prognostic models for COVID-19. The predicted outcome was initiation of respiratory support or death. Performance of the candidate models was evaluated according to discrimination and calibration. We recalibrated the intercept of each model with our data. We also updated each model by adding ß2-microglobulin (ß2MG) to the model and recalculating the intercept and the coefficient of ß2MG. RESULTS: Mean patient age was 49.8 years, 68% were male, 88.7% were Japanese. The study outcomes occurred in 15 patients, including two deaths. Two-hundred sixty-nine papers were screened, and four candidate prognostic models were assessed. The model of Bartoletti et al. had the highest area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.81-0.96). All four models overestimated the probability of occurrence of the outcome. None of the four models showed statistically significant improvement in AUCs by adding ß2MG. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the existing prediction models for COVID-19 overestimate the probability of occurrence of unfavorable outcomes in a Japanese cohort. When applying a prediction model to a different cohort, it is desirable to evaluate its performance according to the prevalent health situation in that region.

Utility of the antigen test for coronavirus disease 2019: Factors influencing the prediction of the possibility of disease transmission.

OBJECTIVES: Rapid antigen testing (RAT) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has lower sensitivity but high accuracy during the early stage when compared to reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). The aim of this study was to investigate the concordance between RAT and RT-qPCR results, and their prediction of disease transmission. METHODS: This single-center retrospective observational study of inpatients with COVID-19 was conducted from March 6 to June 14, 2020. Nasopharyngeal swabs were used to perform RAT and RT-qPCR. The primary endpoint was concordance between RAT and RT-qPCR results. The secondary endpoints were the factors causing disagreement in the results and the estimated transmissibility in RT-qPCR-positive patients with mild symptoms. RESULTS: Overall, 229 samples in viral transport medium (VTM) were obtained from 105 patients. The positive and negative concordance rates for VTM were 41% vs 99% (κ = 0.37) and 72% vs 100% (κ = 0.50) for samples collected on disease days 2-9. An increased body temperature (odds ratio 0.54) and absence of drugs with potential antiviral effect (odds ratio 0.48) yielded conflicting results. RAT was associated with the ability to end isolation (OR 0.11, 95% confidence interval 0.20-0.61). CONCLUSIONS: RAT and RT-qPCR results were highly consistent for samples collected at the appropriate time and could be useful for inferring the possibility of transmissibility.

The first case of COVID-19 occurring as community-acquired pneumonia in Hokkaido, Japan and our preventive measures against nosocomial infection.

We report a case of a 59-year-old man with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). He had visited a hospital for fever and cough and been treated with antibiotics for pneumonia in the right upper lobe. However, he gradually progressed to dyspnea and consulted our hospital. His chest radiographs showed bilateral pneumonia shadows and his CT showed ground glass opacities and consolidation. Although we treated him with broad-spectrum antibiotics, the pneumonia shadow rapidly progressed and mechanical ventilation was administered. We collected sputum from the bronchus using bronchoscopy to detect microorganisms, and RT-PCR tests confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia. He was transferred to a designated hospital. In order to prevent the occurrence of nosocomial infections, close contacts within the hospital and medical staff were suspended from their work for two weeks. No secondary infection with COVID-19 appeared. This was the first case of COVID-19 occurring as community-acquired pneumonia in Hokkaido, Japan.